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Bridge Brief Broadcast Archive
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February 12, 2002
Its All in the Percentages
Its All in the Percentages
When you develop a line of play you are often faced with a choice. If the
situation is such that all possibilities can be attempted then that is clearly
best. But often you must choose only one. In those cases you must choose the
single line of play that affords you the best chance of success.
Look at the following hands and decide on your line of play.
The correct choices are provided at the end.
| No. 1 |
North (dummy) |
|
|
 8652 |
|
|
 K654 |
|
|
 A10 |
|
| West |
 K108 |
East |
| ??? |
|
??? |
| ??? |
|
??? |
|
??? |
|
??? |
|
??? |
South (you) |
??? |
|
743 |
|
|
A2 |
|
|
KQ432 |
|
|
AQJ |
|
|
| West |
North |
East |
South |
| Pass |
Pass |
Pass |
1NT |
| Pass |
2 |
Pass |
2 |
| Pass |
3NT |
Pass |
Pass |
| Pass |
|
|
|
The opening lead is the
K. The defense cashes
four spade tricks (West started with
KQJ10 and East with
A9). At trick five
West leads the 10.
Thank goodness they could only cash four spade tricks. You only have eight top
tricks and the ninth must come from diamonds. What is your plan?
No. 2
| No. 2 |
North (dummy) |
|
|
743 |
|
|
A6543 |
|
|
A7 |
|
| West |
J108 |
East |
| ??? |
|
??? |
| ??? |
|
??? |
|
??? |
|
??? |
|
??? |
South (you) |
??? |
|
AKQJ |
|
|
KQ |
|
|
KQ3 |
|
|
A976 |
|
|
| West |
North |
East |
South |
| Pass |
Pass |
Pass |
2NT |
| Pass |
3 |
Pass |
3NT |
| Pass |
6NT |
Pass |
Pass |
| Pass |
|
|
|
The opening lead is the
J. Plan the play.
Answers:
No. 1
| No. 1 |
North (dummy) |
|
|
8652 |
|
|
K654 |
|
|
A10 |
|
| West |
K108 |
East |
| KQJ10 |
|
A9 |
| 108 |
|
QJ973 |
|
J965 |
|
87 |
|
952 |
South (you) |
7643 |
|
743 |
|
|
A2 |
|
|
KQ432 |
|
|
AQJ |
|
The obvious choices are:
(1) Cash the three top diamonds. This is successful whenever the missing
diamonds divide 3-3.
(2) Finesse the
10 (low to the ten) and then cash the top
three diamonds. This is successful whenever the
J is in the West hand.
(1) will be successful 36% of the time.
(2) will be successful 50% of the time.
The correct play is to finesse the
10.
No. 2
| No. 2 |
North (dummy) |
|
|
743 |
|
|
A6543 |
|
|
A7 |
|
| West |
J108 |
East |
| 9652 |
|
108 |
| J8 |
|
10972 |
|
J1098 |
|
6542 |
|
Q52 |
South (you) |
K43 |
|
AKQJ |
|
|
KQ |
|
|
KQ3 |
|
|
A976 |
|
You have 11 top tricks (4 spades, 3 hearts, 3 diamonds, and 1 club). To play
for hearts to be 3-3 will win 36% of the time. However, if you give up one of
your heart tricks you have two entries to dummy and you can take a repeated
finesse in clubs. This will be successful anytime the club honors are split (one
in each hand) or both with East. That equates to 75% of the time. A successful
repeated club finesse will give you three tricks and enough to make the hand (4
spades, 2 hearts, 3 diamonds, and 3 clubs).
Win the
A and take a club finesse (losing to the
Q). Win any return and play a heart from the
South overtaking with the
A and repeat the club
finesse.
-Gary King
�2002 The Bridge Companion. All rights reserved.